ISIS: What's Next?

On the battlefield, it seems that the so-called ‘Islamic State’ (ISIS) has been thoroughly defeated. The terror group has lost control of nearly the entirety of its once mighty swaths of territory. A long series of devastating defeats at the hands of adversaries such as the Kurdish Peshmerga, the Syrian Army, the Iraqi Army, and the international military coalitions led by the United States and Russia have dealt a devastating blow to ISIS’s prospects of establishing a lasting Islamic caliphate in Iraq and Syria. In light of its defeats on the battlefield, ISIS has attempted to refocus its efforts on international jihad (following closely in the footsteps of its predecessor al-Qaeda). Mass-casualty terror attacks in France, Belgium, the United States, and other Western countries have been either orchestrated by ISIS, inspired by the group, or dubiously claimed by ISIS after the fact. The question that the West faces going forward is: with ISIS nearly wiped from the map in the Middle East, what’s next?

Some might argue that the defeat of ISIS on its home turf should spell the end to the terrorist group. Jihadists might be turned off by the group’s perceived weakness on the battlefield. The ISIS brand name, in other words, has been irreversibly damaged. It should follow that the group’s recruiting efforts and membership numbers will fall precipitously. After all, what ‘warrior of Allah’ would tie his legacy to that of an organization that couldn’t even manage to hold the territory it gained in Syria and Iraq? The future for the group looks to be gloomy. It therefore should be expected that the number of terrorist attacks in the name of ISIS will be dwindling until the group fades to obscurity.

But it is a mistake to underestimate the determination of such a fiercely ideologically-driven group as ISIS. Many political analysts have pointed out that terrorism is a tactic of the weak; strong actors such as states do not commonly resort to terrorism, as they have more powerful means to advance their goals (warfare, strongarm diplomacy, and economic warfare). Organizations like al-Qaeda resorted to terrorist tactics to advance its goals because it did not have the weapons and capabilities that a state would have in its arsenal. As terrorist organizations are weakened, they may actually become more likely to commit terror attacks against foreign civilians.

The Western powers should not bask in their victory against ISIS in Syria and Iraq. To think that the group will accept its defeat humbly and give in to Western dominance is simply foolish. As ISIS sees its defeats mounting, there is a strong possibility that the group could resort to committing more and more brazen attacks against the West. They have every motive to keep up their international terror: it could repair their brand image among jihadists, it would keep the group relevant even after its territory is gone, and it would give the group another avenue to continue its struggle against the world order. Rather than discount ISIS as a defeated enemy of the past, the West ought to keep its guard up and expect an ever-more-deadly campaign of violent jihad in the near future.